As the global pandemic moves into a third year, the four Young Lives study countries continue to face unprecedented economic and social challenges.
- India experienced a devastating second wave of infections in April and May 2021, with a third wave still in progress. After successfully avoiding a major outbreak in 2020,
- Vietnam also experienced a significant fourth wave of the pandemic in April 2021, resulting in substantial increases in both infections and deaths.
- Peru continues to have the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world, following a crippling second wave between January and July 2021, and is grappling with ongoing political turmoil.
- In Ethiopia, the greatest concern remains the year-long Tigray conflict, with severe food insecurity exacerbated by drought and high inflation. The country's incidence of COVID-19 has remained relatively low so far; however, very low vaccine uptake may leave Ethiopia vulnerable to future variants.
In all our study countries, the past year has highlighted how quickly circumstances can change, the importance of learning from recent experiences, and the urgent need to support vulnerable young people and their families.
On Wednesday 9th March, Young Lives will publish new findings from the fifth call in our COVID-19 Phone Survey investigating the impact of the pandemic and other crises on the lives of young people. In advance of this, our Young Lives Country Directors provide an update on the current contexts in their respective countries, including related government responses.
The second wave of COVID-19 in India hit hard in April-May 2021, resulting in a significant increase in infections and deaths, with substantial economic and social costs as new restrictions were imposed. India is currently ranked as the second most affected country in the world, with total recorded cases over 42 million, although cases per population place it much lower at 143rd globally. The country is now being impacted by a third wave, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, although new cases have recently been falling suggesting infections peaked in late January 2022.
After a slow start, the national vaccination programme has accelerated in recent months. As of 1st March 2022, 69% of the total population has now received one dose (including nearly 80% of children aged 15-18 years), and 57% have had two doses. Booster doses are now being provided to front-line workers and vulnerable people over 60 years of age.
In 2021, the central government decentralised pandemic policy decisions to state governments, which has resulted in less severe restrictions compared to 2020. Nonetheless, the economic and social impacts have been substantial, with unemployment rising to between 8-12% in the second quarter of 2021, though this has since fallen as the country gradually recovers. Around 250 million students have been affected by school and university closures, and despite some relaxation of restrictions in 2021, the sudden third wave in early 2022 delayed plans to reopen, with face-to-face lessons only just beginning to resume in a number of states.
While Vietnam was successful in containing COVID-19 during 2020, the fourth wave in April 2021 resulted in a significant increase in both infections and deaths. As of 1st March 2022, Vietnam has recorded 3,624 infections per 100,000 population, in sharp contrast to a total of only 1,570 cases recorded in the whole of the first three waves (from January 2020 to April 2021). An effective national vaccination programme has resulted in the vast majority now being vaccinated, with 81% having received one dose, and 79% having received two doses. Booster doses are now being offered to all adults (aged 18 and above).
Strict lockdowns were imposed during the fourth wave, particularly in provinces around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, resulting in severe disruptions and considerable socioeconomic impacts. In the third quarter of 2021, GDP decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2020 - the largest quarterly decrease since records began - and unemployment rose to 3.4%, compared to just 2.2% in the first quarter of 2021. A new government relief package, worth VND 26 thousand billion (USD 1.1 billion) has been implemented, however, income support is widely seen as inadequate, given the magnitude of the economic shock.
A change of government strategy adopted in October 2021 has moved away from a ‘zero-COVID’ approach towards ‘flexible adaptation’ and living safely with the virus, underpinned by an acceleration in the vaccination programme, improved health care systems, and a greater capacity for testing. Schools and universities were closed for extended periods in 2021 in pandemic areas, with learning moved to online platforms, though falling COVID-19 cases and high vaccinations rates have resulted in schools now beginning to reopen in numerous provinces.
Following the second wave, between January and July 2021, Peru continues to have the highest death rate from COVID-19 in the world, with 632 deaths per 100,000 population recorded as of 1st March 2022. The situation is currently improving, however, in terms of both daily recorded cases and related deaths. After a slow start, the national vaccination programme has been much more successful in the second half of 2021, with 82% of the total population having received one dose, and 72% receiving two doses. Booster doses are now being provided to those aged over 65 years and above, and vaccinations are available to children aged 5 and over.
There has been a significant improvement in economic activities and employment levels, with GDP growth expected to be over 13% in 2021, compared to a dramatic fall in GDP of 11% in 2020. Most economic restrictions have now been relaxed, although there are still limits on the number of people allowed in enclosed spaces. Most schools and higher education institutions still remain closed, however, with lessons continuing to be provided remotely. This has had a profound impact on learning, particularly for students from poor households and those with no internet access. There is now significant pressure on the government to reopen schools, which are expected to return to in-person teaching from the end of March 2022, after two years of closure.
The political situation in Peru remains very unstable. Over the last six months, four different Prime Ministers have been appointed, and there have been many changes in the cabinet, including three different Ministers of Education. This has created great uncertainty about the orientation of expected policies over the coming years.
The biggest concern in Ethiopia remains the year-long conflict between the government and Tigrayan forces, which has resulted in heavy war casualties, human rights and sexual violations, and large numbers of internally displaced people and refugees. The situation remains highly precarious and volatile, with disastrous consequences for the economy, investment, and tourism, and will require significant investment in post-conflict reconstruction once peace has been re-established.
Ethiopia is also grappling with an alarming increase in food insecurity, with droughts and locust swarms in the southern parts of the country and persistently high costs of staple goods exacerbated by high inflation, putting vulnerable communities at risk of acute hunger. UNICEF estimates almost 850,000 children are at risk of severe undernutrition in Ethiopia this year, with urgent humanitarian assistance needed for more than 6.8 million people by mid-2022. Efforts to support those in need are already under tremendous strain, compounded by the ongoing conflict, with services disrupted, insufficient social protection, and a humanitarian system already overwhelmed.
While Ethiopia has continued to record relatively low rates of COVID-19, notwithstanding a recent upsurge in urban areas due to the Omicron variant, low levels of testing make the extent of underreporting difficult to ascertain. Early signs of recovery following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions (imposed during 2020) have now been superseded by falling employment and increasing levels of poverty. Vaccines are now available to all adults over 18 years old, though uptake has been very low, with limited awareness and some hesitancy to accept the vaccine. Only 17% of the population had received one vaccine dose as of 1st March 2022, falling short of the target to vaccinate 20% of its eligible population by the end of 2021, and leaving Ethiopia very vulnerable to future variants.
Headline reports from the Fifth Call of Young Lives at Work’s Phone Call Survey in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam will be published on 9th March. Young Lives At Work (YLAW) is funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, with additional funding from the Old Dart Foundation in Peru. Visit our webpage or follow us on Twitter @yloxford, LinkedIn or Facebook.
Photo credit: © Young Lives /Mulugeta Gebrekidan. The images throughout our publications are of young people living in circumstances and communities similar those within our study sample.
All COVID-19 figures are accurate as of March 1st 2022 and are sourced from here.
As the global pandemic moves into a third year, the four Young Lives study countries continue to face unprecedented economic and social challenges.
- India experienced a devastating second wave of infections in April and May 2021, with a third wave still in progress. After successfully avoiding a major outbreak in 2020,
- Vietnam also experienced a significant fourth wave of the pandemic in April 2021, resulting in substantial increases in both infections and deaths.
- Peru continues to have the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world, following a crippling second wave between January and July 2021, and is grappling with ongoing political turmoil.
- In Ethiopia, the greatest concern remains the year-long Tigray conflict, with severe food insecurity exacerbated by drought and high inflation. The country's incidence of COVID-19 has remained relatively low so far; however, very low vaccine uptake may leave Ethiopia vulnerable to future variants.
In all our study countries, the past year has highlighted how quickly circumstances can change, the importance of learning from recent experiences, and the urgent need to support vulnerable young people and their families.
On Wednesday 9th March, Young Lives will publish new findings from the fifth call in our COVID-19 Phone Survey investigating the impact of the pandemic and other crises on the lives of young people. In advance of this, our Young Lives Country Directors provide an update on the current contexts in their respective countries, including related government responses.
The second wave of COVID-19 in India hit hard in April-May 2021, resulting in a significant increase in infections and deaths, with substantial economic and social costs as new restrictions were imposed. India is currently ranked as the second most affected country in the world, with total recorded cases over 42 million, although cases per population place it much lower at 143rd globally. The country is now being impacted by a third wave, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, although new cases have recently been falling suggesting infections peaked in late January 2022.
After a slow start, the national vaccination programme has accelerated in recent months. As of 1st March 2022, 69% of the total population has now received one dose (including nearly 80% of children aged 15-18 years), and 57% have had two doses. Booster doses are now being provided to front-line workers and vulnerable people over 60 years of age.
In 2021, the central government decentralised pandemic policy decisions to state governments, which has resulted in less severe restrictions compared to 2020. Nonetheless, the economic and social impacts have been substantial, with unemployment rising to between 8-12% in the second quarter of 2021, though this has since fallen as the country gradually recovers. Around 250 million students have been affected by school and university closures, and despite some relaxation of restrictions in 2021, the sudden third wave in early 2022 delayed plans to reopen, with face-to-face lessons only just beginning to resume in a number of states.
While Vietnam was successful in containing COVID-19 during 2020, the fourth wave in April 2021 resulted in a significant increase in both infections and deaths. As of 1st March 2022, Vietnam has recorded 3,624 infections per 100,000 population, in sharp contrast to a total of only 1,570 cases recorded in the whole of the first three waves (from January 2020 to April 2021). An effective national vaccination programme has resulted in the vast majority now being vaccinated, with 81% having received one dose, and 79% having received two doses. Booster doses are now being offered to all adults (aged 18 and above).
Strict lockdowns were imposed during the fourth wave, particularly in provinces around Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, resulting in severe disruptions and considerable socioeconomic impacts. In the third quarter of 2021, GDP decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2020 - the largest quarterly decrease since records began - and unemployment rose to 3.4%, compared to just 2.2% in the first quarter of 2021. A new government relief package, worth VND 26 thousand billion (USD 1.1 billion) has been implemented, however, income support is widely seen as inadequate, given the magnitude of the economic shock.
A change of government strategy adopted in October 2021 has moved away from a ‘zero-COVID’ approach towards ‘flexible adaptation’ and living safely with the virus, underpinned by an acceleration in the vaccination programme, improved health care systems, and a greater capacity for testing. Schools and universities were closed for extended periods in 2021 in pandemic areas, with learning moved to online platforms, though falling COVID-19 cases and high vaccinations rates have resulted in schools now beginning to reopen in numerous provinces.
Following the second wave, between January and July 2021, Peru continues to have the highest death rate from COVID-19 in the world, with 632 deaths per 100,000 population recorded as of 1st March 2022. The situation is currently improving, however, in terms of both daily recorded cases and related deaths. After a slow start, the national vaccination programme has been much more successful in the second half of 2021, with 82% of the total population having received one dose, and 72% receiving two doses. Booster doses are now being provided to those aged over 65 years and above, and vaccinations are available to children aged 5 and over.
There has been a significant improvement in economic activities and employment levels, with GDP growth expected to be over 13% in 2021, compared to a dramatic fall in GDP of 11% in 2020. Most economic restrictions have now been relaxed, although there are still limits on the number of people allowed in enclosed spaces. Most schools and higher education institutions still remain closed, however, with lessons continuing to be provided remotely. This has had a profound impact on learning, particularly for students from poor households and those with no internet access. There is now significant pressure on the government to reopen schools, which are expected to return to in-person teaching from the end of March 2022, after two years of closure.
The political situation in Peru remains very unstable. Over the last six months, four different Prime Ministers have been appointed, and there have been many changes in the cabinet, including three different Ministers of Education. This has created great uncertainty about the orientation of expected policies over the coming years.
The biggest concern in Ethiopia remains the year-long conflict between the government and Tigrayan forces, which has resulted in heavy war casualties, human rights and sexual violations, and large numbers of internally displaced people and refugees. The situation remains highly precarious and volatile, with disastrous consequences for the economy, investment, and tourism, and will require significant investment in post-conflict reconstruction once peace has been re-established.
Ethiopia is also grappling with an alarming increase in food insecurity, with droughts and locust swarms in the southern parts of the country and persistently high costs of staple goods exacerbated by high inflation, putting vulnerable communities at risk of acute hunger. UNICEF estimates almost 850,000 children are at risk of severe undernutrition in Ethiopia this year, with urgent humanitarian assistance needed for more than 6.8 million people by mid-2022. Efforts to support those in need are already under tremendous strain, compounded by the ongoing conflict, with services disrupted, insufficient social protection, and a humanitarian system already overwhelmed.
While Ethiopia has continued to record relatively low rates of COVID-19, notwithstanding a recent upsurge in urban areas due to the Omicron variant, low levels of testing make the extent of underreporting difficult to ascertain. Early signs of recovery following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions (imposed during 2020) have now been superseded by falling employment and increasing levels of poverty. Vaccines are now available to all adults over 18 years old, though uptake has been very low, with limited awareness and some hesitancy to accept the vaccine. Only 17% of the population had received one vaccine dose as of 1st March 2022, falling short of the target to vaccinate 20% of its eligible population by the end of 2021, and leaving Ethiopia very vulnerable to future variants.
Headline reports from the Fifth Call of Young Lives at Work’s Phone Call Survey in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam will be published on 9th March. Young Lives At Work (YLAW) is funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, with additional funding from the Old Dart Foundation in Peru. Visit our webpage or follow us on Twitter @yloxford, LinkedIn or Facebook.
Photo credit: © Young Lives /Mulugeta Gebrekidan. The images throughout our publications are of young people living in circumstances and communities similar those within our study sample.
All COVID-19 figures are accurate as of March 1st 2022 and are sourced from here.